Detroit Red Wings Goaltending RGV Study – Project Helium
By Brian Draus
Detroit Red Wings Goaltending Regulated Goalie Value (RGV) Comparison Study: Petr Mrazek vs. Jimmy Howard – Project Helium
As I switch back to the present for my next study, I thought it would make sense to analyze two goalies who reside in Hockeytown, USA. Since that is the case, this article will be about both netminders who play for the Detroit Red Wings. With a young goalie (Petr Mrazek), and a seasoned veteran (Jimmy Howard), it should be interesting to see what the results show.
Since Mrazek is so young, I am going to have to use the results from this past season, and for both goalies. I don’t usually use 2015-16 due to the fact that the season just wrapped up, and it makes sense to compare different seasons on most occasions. But, I am going to try something a little bit different this time around by using this past year for both studies.
Let’s get the analysis started:
The first study will be a game played on December 31, 2015. Petr Mrazek was in goal that night for the Detroit Red Wings, who lost 5-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Click the link to see what each variable means
The Scoring Recap (Pittsburgh Goals Only)
(2nd Pd)
0:45 PPG: J+J1+M
11:44 PPG: E+E1+M+M1
(3rd Pd)
7:48: J+J12
8:22: E+E12
18:20 EN: there is no value for empty net goals in RGV
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When all was said and done, Mrazek’s RGV total was 3.9373.
This is another case where the PGV (Per Goal Value) is below one, checking in at 0.9842.
Keep in mind that half of these goals were scored on the power play (the goals that register on RGV), meaning that Mrazek’s RGV value will be reduced.
Scoring goals in front of the net helps out the goalie as well, considering two of the goals were scored in that area of the ice.
Now, let’s move to Jimmy Howard’s portion of the study.
The game I will use is from March 8th, 2016, which the Detroit Red Wings lost 5-3 to the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Scoring Recap (Columbus Goals Only)
(2nd Pd)
0:35 PPG: F (slap shot)+K
16:35: J+J1+J11
(3rd Pd)
0:26: J+J12
9:14 PPG: F (slap shot)+F2+K+K2
19:42 EN: there is no value for empty net goals in RGV
Once again, Howard was able to keep his RGV below one per game, at 3.7327.
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Howard’s PGV was little bit lower than Mrazek’s, as it added up to 0.9332.
Howard’s PGV was a bit above average, considering the fact that it wasn’t far off of the -0.1 needed to be considered to be above average.
Howard was helped just as Mrazek was by two power play goals, however Howard’s were given up on a two-man disadvantage.
That means an even lower score for the goalie, which would have been below one even if both power play goals were given up only one man down.
Next: Pavel Datsyuk Nearing KHL Decision
Overall, I think it is a bit interesting that both goalies scored under one in the PGV column. They will be much talked about in the Motor City, as one ages and one enters his prime.
While only so much can be deciphered by a one game study, I still think that both have much more to offer in the coming years at the NHL level.
Mrazek should be an interesting goalie to watch, as he will be one of the netminders on the up-and-coming league-wide. With these studies winding down, expect another article or two, and then the introduction of a new formula. Stick around, as more is on the way.
Source: http://redwings.nhl.com/