Given that it is a very short competition with Team Canada playing only two exhibition and six tournament games it is not a surprise that I did not have many changes.  However, there were a few players that I had a different opinion of after watching them in these games.

My pre-tournament and post-tournament rankings are displayed in the table below.  The ones that have changed are in bold.

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June 22, 2012; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Mikhail Grigorenko poses for a photo after being selected as the number twelve overall draft pick to the Buffalo Sabres in the 2012 NHL Draft at CONSOL Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE

Last week at the Prime Time Sports Management Conference, Kevin Cheveldayoff (General Manager of the Winnipeg Jets) was quoted as saying  “a gentleman who helped me get in the business once told me you draft players, you don’t adopt them. You have to understand if they don’t turn out, move on.”  Yet so many teams do not live by this philosophy.  It is understandable because they invest so much time and money on their high draft picks that they don’t want to let go too easy.  Many in management are also scared to admit they made a mistake in fear of their job.

Tyler Dellow at mc79hockey.com, wrote an interesting piece earlier this week looking at the development of defensive defensemen in the NHL.  In a nutshell he found that most regular NHL defensemen get to that point by the time they are 23 and show signs of doing so much earlier.  This somewhat contradicts the popular belief that you have to give young defensemen plenty of extra time to develop.

Cheveldayoff’s quote and Dellow’s article got me thinking about forward prospects and when teams should give up hope on those which they think will be point producers at the NHL level.  Since I also cover the Maple Leafs for Editor In Leaf, there are two prime examples of first round picks that have yet to find their place in the NHL.  Nazem Kadri and Joe Colborne are both only 22 years old, but has the ship already sailed on their chances of becoming scoring forwards in the NHL?

In the 2011-12 NHL season there were 95 forwards that had at least 50 points.  That is approximately three players per team.  Fifty points by most accounts is not a lot, but considering how few forwards produce to that level each year it should temper most people’s expectations on prospects.

Looking at each of those 95 players from the 2011-12 season, 83 of them were regulars in the NHL by time they were 22 and 53 of the players had reached the 50 point plateau by that time.

Considering that many European and NCAA prospects typically don’t join their NHL clubs until at least a season or two after being drafted, I filtered the list to only include players that were drafted from the CHL.  Of those 53 players, 48 of them were regulars in the NHL by age 22 and 33 of them had eclipsed the 49 point mark in a season by that time.

I wanted to get a feel for first round picks since these are the players that teams tend to hang on to, hoping that they will one day fulfill the potential that they saw in them on draft day.  Looking at all the first round picks on this list, all 51 players were full time NHL contributors by time they were 22 and 40 of them had scored at least 50 points by that time.

Clearly there are players like Martin St. Louis and Alex Burrows that break out offensively later in their career, but for the most part if a forward is not at least a regular contributor at the NHL level by the time they are 22, they probably will not fulfill the scoring promise that was expected of them.

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April 7, 2012; Winnipeg, MB, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning forward Steven Stamkos (91) awaits the face off during the first period against the Winnipeg Jets at the MTS Centre. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-US PRESSWIRE

Recently a few outlets have posted top 25 lists of NHL players under the age of 25, so I thought I would try my hand at one for Too Many Men On The Site.  Justin Bourne of the Backhand Shelf Blog posted his HERE and Neil Greenberg of ESPN has his HERE.  I followed the same framework as they did, meaning that players who turn 25 years old prior to February 1, 2013 were not included and players had to play at least one regular season game to be eligible.

I used a blend of past performance and future expectation to rate my players, but the main criteria being who would you want on your team going forward.  This was the approach Bourne took and I think it is the best way to attack a list like this.

1. Steven Stamkos – You cannot deny a guy that has scored 40+ goals in three straight seasons including a 60 goal campaign last year.  He is one of the top three most dangerous offensive players in the game along with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

2. John Tavares – I am extremely high on Tavares and was tempted to put him number one on this list.  He had his best season yet last year and he keeps getting better on a very bad hockey team.

3. Alex Pietrangelo – I realize that Erik Karlsson has won a Norris trophy already, but when it is all said and done, Pietrangelo will end up with more.

4. Tyler Seguin – Sorry Maple Leaf fans…

5. Jonathan Toews – A tremendous leader and a great hockey player.

6. Erik Karlsson – Won the Norris trophy at the age of 22.  He is the best offensive defenseman in the league, but his defensive game leaves a lot to be desired at this point.

7. Logan Couture – Back to back 30 goal seasons to start his NHL career.  The Sharks are now his team.

8. Taylor Hall – Hall can be such a dynamic player, he just needs to stay healthy for a full season.

9. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Nugent-Hopkins’ first full season was cut short, but he showed enough in his rookie campaign to be in this group.

10. Patrick Kane – Kane is coming off his worst NHL season, but still put up 66 points.  He is a great offensive talent and a game breaker.

11. Drew Doughty – He was average in the regular season, but a stud in the playoffs helping the Kings win a Stanley Cup.  He has the potential to be a Norris trophy winner.

12. Milan Lucic – He might be the toughest player in the league and is coming off back to back 60+ point campaigns.  He is a very unique talent.

13. Jordan Eberle – Although there are questions of whether his numbers from last year are inflated, he definitely belongs among the top 25.

13. David Perron – An extremely underrated player that appears to have overcome his concussion issues.  He made the Blues a much better team when he returned to the lineup last year and I expect a breakout campaign if we have a season.

15. Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Had a very good season last year, a potential Norris trophy guy down the road.

16 Jordan Staal – Has proven to be the best third line center in the league.  He will have a chance this year to show that he is a legit top end forward.

17. Jamie Benn – Benn has a good all-around game and has been very impressive in his first three years in Big D.

18. Tyler Ennis – He has shown flashes of brilliance over the past two seasons.  He had a great finish to the year with nine goals and 21 points in the final 19 games.

19. Jeff Skinner – I’m not as high on Skinner as most people.  I think he is a good player that deserves to be on this list, but he isn’t close to a top ten guy in my opinion.

20. Max Pacioretty – Pac Man had a great bounce back year after the devastating injury he suffered in 2011 at the hands of Zdeno Chara.  He was a little slow to develop compared to many on this list, but he is a prototypical power forward that can get you 30 goals every year.

21. Evander Kane – Although he scored 30 goals last year he still leaves a lot to be desired.  He has the tools to be a dominant player, but he has yet to show that he can be.

22. Wayne Simmonds – Simmonds broke out last year scoring 28 goals and he is another guy that plays a tough power forward game.  Not sure if he can consistently produce that kind of offense year over year.

23. John Carlson – Carlson is part of the Capitals top defense pairing along with Karl Alzner, which has negatively impacted his offensive numbers.  Don’t be fooled, this guy can do it at both ends of the ice.  Yes, I would take Carlson over P.K. Subban.

24. Matt Duchene – I hope this guy proves me wrong.  I really like him as a player, but I’m not sure if he is elite.

25. Tyler Myers – At times he looks dominant, but he lacks consistency.  At some point he is going to figure it all out.

Close but no cigar:

26. James van Riemsdyk
27. Gabriel Landeskog
28. P.K. Subban
29. Brad Marchand
30. Ryan O’Reilly
31. Ryan McDonagh
32. Jake Gardiner
33. Jakub Voracek

Tell me what you think?

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