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Ranking Canada’s World Junior Players For Future NHL Success – After Tournament

Tony Notarianni — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 13:20:12 +0000

Before the World Junior Championship Hockey Tournament I put out my rankings of Team Canada’s players in regards to future NHL success. I promised at that time that I would take a look back after the tournament to see if my opinion has changed.

Given that it is a very short competition with Team Canada playing only two exhibition and six tournament games it is not a surprise that I did not have many changes. However, there were a few players that I had a different opinion of after watching them in these games.

My pre-tournament and post-tournament rankings are displayed in the table below. The ones that have changed are in bold.

Name	Pos	NHL Team	Rating Before	Rating After	Notes
Ryan Nugent Hopkins	F	EDM	100	100	RNH was Canada’s best player and the best player in the tournament.
Nathan MacKinnon	F	Eligible 2013	100	100	MacKinnon did not see much ice time so it’s very hard to judge his performance. I still think he will be a star in the NHL.
Jonathan Huberdeau	F	FLA	100	100	Huberdeau along with RNH and Scheifele were Canada’s top players. He will be in a Panthers jersey if there is an NHL season this year
Jonathan Drouin	F	Eligible 2013	75	100	Benefitted from a lot of ice time and took advantage of it. I still like MacKinnon ahead of him, but Drouin looks like a star.
Ryan Strome	F	NYI	75	75	He has dominated in the OHL this year, he was very good at times, but invisible when it mattered most. I think he tops out as a second line centre, but I question whether he gets there.
Dougie Hamilton	D	BOS	75	75	I’m not in love with Hamilton as much as others. I thought he was below average in the tournament, but he has all the tools to be a top end defenseman.
Morgan Rielly	D	TOR	75	75	Did not get as much ice time in the tournament as I thought. I think that was a mistake. He showed flashes of what he can be at the next level. Great skater, very good puck mover.
Mark Scheifele	F	WPG	50	75	I was most impressed with Scheifele in the tournament. Big, strong forward with good hands. Made the transition to the wing with ease
Griffin Reinhart	D	NYI	75	50	Reinhart looked very slow on the big ice and I am not sure he has the puck moving ability to be a top four consistently at the NHL level
Boone Jenner	F	CBJ	50	50	Missed three games due to suspension, good depth player, most likely a third line center in the NHL.
Brett Ritchie	F	DAL	50	50	Ritchie struggled offensively in the tournament, but I like his skill set. I think he finds a niche in the NHL, but I don’t think he will be a scorer.
Phillip Danault	F	CHI	50	50	Danault is an underrated role player. He looks to be a player that can play a role in the NHL.
Xavier Ouellet	D	DET	50	50	Ouellet was probably Canada’s best defenseman in the tournament. Reminds me a lot of Carlo Colaiacovo.
Malcolm Subban	G	BOS	50	50	Despite the negativity surrounding his play I thought Subban was pretty good in the tournament. Very tough to project goalies this early in development, but as a first round pick you would expect an NHL career
Scott Harrington	D	PIT	50	0-25	Another defenseman I am not as high on as others. I was disappointed with his tournament and I’m not sure Harrington moves well enough on the back end to carve out a long career in the NHL
Ryan Murphy	D	CAR	0-25	0-25	Had a very bad tournament. A lot of skill from the back end, but not sure if team’s will want a PP specialist on their blue line.
Tyler Wotherspoon	D	CGY	0-25	0-25	Wotherspoon had a pretty good tournament, but he lacks mobility to be a consistent pro at NHL level
Anthony Camara	F	BOS	0-25	0-25	Camara is a guy that can find a niche in the NHL as a fourth line grinder with toughness like a Gregory Campbell.
J.C. Lipon	F	Undrafted	0-25	0-25	Lipon was essentially unnoticeable in the tournament. Still undrafted I’m not sure anyone uses a pick on him in June.
Ty Rattie	F	STL	0-25	0-25	Rattie moved up the lineup and finished the tournament on the top line. He’ll get a shot in the NHL, but not sure he becomes a scoring forward.
Jordan Binnington	G	STL	0-25	0-25	Binnington struggled in the Bronze medal game as the starter. Like Subban tough to predict goalies at this stage.
Jake Paterson	G	DET	0-25	0-25	Paterson never dressed for the tournament as the team’s third goalie. Like Subban tough to predict goalies at this stage.

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Ranking Canada’s World Junior Players For Future NHL Success – Before Tournament

Tony Notarianni — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 14:11:33 +0000

IIHF U-20 World Junior Ice Hockey Championship

Last week I wrote about Canada’s World Junior team and the potential of players becoming stars at the NHL level based on past results. In a nutshell, I analyzed every player on Team Canada’s roster from tournaments taking place between 1990 and 2005. More than half the players (55.4%) played more than 500 games, which is a good proxy for a regular NHL player. However, only 8.2% became star players.

This year is unique, as with the NHL lockout there are a number of players who were expected to be in the NHL this season. This situation occurred for both the 1995 and 2005 tournaments. The 1995 team did not produce any “Star” players, but had eight “Good” players and another five players that played over 500 games. The 2005 team is regarded as the best World Junior team of all time. That team had five “Star” players, seven “Good” players and one more player who played over 500 games. There is no telling what this team will produce, but that is part of what I am trying to do here. I have ranked each player on this year’s Team Canada based on their prospects for future NHL success giving them a projected rating based on the same system:

Rating	Criteria
100	Star, Top 3F, Top 2D, Elite Starting Goalie
75	Good Player, Top 6F, Top 4D, Starting Goalie Multiple Years
50	Good Role Player, 500+ Games in NHL for F and D, Goalie > 300 starts
25	Role Player, 200-499 Games in NHL for F and D, Goalie 100-299 starts
10	Depth Player, 51-199 Games in NHL for F and D, Goalie 50 – 100 starts
5	Minor Leaguer, 1-50 NHL games, Goalie < 50 starts
0	Busts, Zero NHL games

As the title indicates, this is my pre-tournament assessment. I plan on reviewing this assessment after the tournament to see if it has any influence on my projections.

Name	Pos	NHL Team	Rating	Notes
Ryan Nugent Hopkins	F	EDM	100	RNH proved in his rookie NHL season that he was a top end NHL talent
Nathan MacKinnon	F	Eligible 2013	100	Potential 1st overall pick in 2013 draft. All indiciations are he will be a star in the NHL
Jonathan Huberdeau	F	FLA	100	High end offensive talent, will be in a Panthers uniform if lockout ends
Ryan Strome	F	NYI	75	Dominating OHL this year,I think he projects as a second line center in NHL, not a “Star”
Dougie Hamilton	D	BOS	75	Big, mobile defenseman, not sure he ever produces enough offense to be a “Star” in NHL
Morgan Rielly	D	TOR	75	Elite offensive skills, projects as a power play quarterback, questions about his defensive game
Griffin Reinhart	D	NYI	75	Big defenseman, good all around game, should project as a top 4 for majority of his career
Jonathan Drouin	F	Eligible 2013	75	Projected top 5 pick in this years draft, question whether he is explosive enough to be a “Star”
Boone Jenner	F	CBJ	50	Having great year in OHL, but projects as a third line player at next level
Mark Scheifele	F	WPG	50	Was overmatched in NHL last year, I think he projects more as a bottom six guy over his career
Scott Harrington	D	PIT	50	Will play in the NHL, question whether he will be a top 4 guy for majority of his career
Brett Ritchie	F	DAL	50	Big, physical winger, will find a niche in the NHL, question whether he can produce offense consistently
Phillip Danault	F	CHI	50	Likely a role player at the NHL Level
Xavier Oullet	D	DET	50	Potentially a top 4 guy, just not sure he’ll be that consistently at NHL level
Malcolm Subban	G	BOS	50	First round pick last year, many believe he will be a star, with a goalie it’s too early for me to tell
Charles Hudon	F	MTL	0-25	Depth player, question whether he can take his game to the next level
Ryan Murphy	D	CAR	0-25	Tons of skill, but I question whether he can be a consistent NHL player.
Tyler Wotherspoon	D	CGY	0-25	Lacks mobility to be a conistent pro at NHL level
Anthony Camara	F	BOS	0-25	Camara only put up 0.5 pts/gm the season after his draft year, most likely a depth player
J.C. Lipon	F	Undrafted	0-25	Went undrafted in first year of eligibility, he should hear his name called this year.
Ty Rattie	F	STL	0-25	He’ll either be a top 6 forward or a fringe player; he might be a guy that changes my mind after this tournament
Jordan Binnington	G	STL	0-25	Like Subban, goalies are tough to predict, I will err on the side of caution with both Binnington and Paterson
Jake Paterson	G	DET	0-25	Like Subban, goalies are tough to predict, I will err on the side of caution with both Binnington and Paterson

After reviewing my assessment I noticed that the breakdown of players by rating category is very similar to the averages for a typical Team Canada. So it’s pretty clear that I do not think this team will come close to the team that brought home the gold in 2005, but that does not mean they can’t win this tournament.

Rating	Players	Precentage
100	3	13.0%
75	5	21.7%
50	7	30.4%
0-25	8	34.8%

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