Jan 23, 2013; Vancouver, British Columbia, CANADA; Calgary Flames right wing Jarome Iginla (12) during the third period against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena. \the Vancouver Canucks won 3-2 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

Last Week: 1-1, +0.30 Units
YTD: 1-1, +0.30 Units

As I indicated last week, I hope for this to be a weekly sports betting column where I will post my best bets from the NHL every Saturday morning for the games that day. All odds that I quote are from Bet365.

We started the season off on a positive note with a 1-1 record last Saturday, but because we got plus money on the Blues regulation win we managed to make a little bit of money. This week I am coming back with two more picks.

1) Nashville Predators (Moneyline) -105 at Anaheim – The Ducks are playing their second game of a back to back after getting shelled by the Canucks last night. The Predators have only one win in four games thus far, but two of their losses came in a shoot out.  This is a good situation for the Predators and we get to take them as a small underdog.

 2) Calgary Flames (Moneyline) -120 vs. Edmonton – The battle of Alberta continues on Saturday night and it features two teams headed in opposite directions. The high flying Oilers are off to a 2-1 start while the Flames are winless after three games. What better way to get off the snide than to beat your provincial rival at home on Hockey Night In Canada?  At the end of the year the Oilers will probably be the better team, but on this night the Flames are the better wager.

 
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April 5, 2012; Raleigh, NC, USA; Carolina Hurricanes center Eric Staal (12) carries the puck against the Montreal Canadiens at the PNC center. The Hurricanes defeated the Canadiens 2-1 in the shoot out. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

This is the first of what I hope to be a weekly sports betting column where I will post my best bets from the NHL every Saturday morning for the games that day. All odds that I quote are from Bet365.

After a long lockout and 13 games to start the season on Saturday I am sure it is tempting to blow the bankroll on the first day.  But even though the season is only 48 games long, it is still a marathon not a sprint when it comes to sports wagering.  It is important to be selective in the early going until we have a better read on the teams and try to find teams and situations that present value.

1) St. Louis Blues (Regulation) +130 vs. Detroit – Most sites or casinos offer a regulation bet in the NHL (also known as the 3-way moneyline) and I find this to be a very valuable type of wager especially when taking a favorite.  The Blues are my top rated team in the Western Conference after a break out year last season.  They take on a Detroit Red Wings team that has lost two of its three top defensemen from last season, including Hall of Famer Nicklas Lidstrom.  I think the Blues will be too much to handle for the Wings on opening night and we get really good value with the Regulation line in this spot.

2) Carolina Hurricanes (Moneyline) +115 at Florida – The Hurricanes made a couple big moves in the off-season trading for Jordan Staal and signing unrestricted free agent Alex Semin. They are a team that is on the rise and I expect them to challenge for the Southeast division title. The Florida Panthers are coming off a surprising season winning the Southeast division.  However, they were the only team that made the playoffs with a negative goal differential and they led the league with 18 points from shootout and overtime losses.  It’s safe to say that they were a little lucky and we can expect a decline in performance this season. Take the Hurricanes as the road dog.

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May 1, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Flyers center Claude Giroux (28) gets ready for a face-off against the New Jersey Devils during the second period of game two of the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals at the Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

With the NHL lockout being settled on January 6th and the memorandum of understanding signed on January 12th, NHL teams had only six days to hold a training camp before the first game of the season on January 19th.  This is obviously much shorter than a normal training camp and with zero exhibition games compared to six to eight in a typical season many players and teams will be shaking off the rust on Saturday.

I have a very simple hypothesis: NHL teams who had more players playing competitive hockey during the lockout will be in a better position at the start of the season than those that had just a  few players.  And since the season will be compressed I would also suspect that these teams will perform better over the course of the 48 game schedule.

The table below summarizes for each team the number of players they had playing in Europe and in North America (AHL, CHL, ECHL, etc.) during the lockout.

The Philadelphia Flyers led all teams with 15 players that played during the lockout, while the Vancouver Canucks bring up the rear with only five players that saw real game action.  This is very interesting as the Canucks along with the Pittsburgh Penguins and NY Rangers are among the favorites to win the Stanley Cup according to bet365.  The Rangers along with the Penguins only had six and seven players playing respectively and if any of these teams get off to a slow start they may not be able to recover with only 48 games in the season.  That’s not saying that they cannot win the Stanley Cup, but a slow start could be the difference between winning a division or being an eight seed heading into the playoffs.

I plan on reviewing this data at the end of the year to see if there is any relationship between number of players active during the lockout and team success in the shortened NHL season.

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