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Toronto Maple Leafs: Jonathan Bernier/James Reimer RGV Study II

By Brian Draus

Feb 20, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Jonathan Bernier (45) and goalie James Reimer (34) before the game against the Carolina Hurricanes at PNC Arena. The Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 20, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Jonathan Bernier (45) and goalie James Reimer (34) before the game against the Carolina Hurricanes at PNC Arena. The Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports /
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Toronto Maple Leafs: Project Helium – Regulated Goalie Value (RGV) Second Study of Jonathan Bernier vs. James Reimer

For the first comparison between Toronto Maple Leafs G Jonathan Bernier and San Jose Sharks G James Reimer, I chose to run a one-game study of a poor performance. Now, it would only make sense to run a one-game study with each of them performing well. I am going to flip-flop the seasons that I will use for the study, due to the fact that each had good seasons in opposite years.

Keep in mind that due to the inconsistency when they co-existed in Toronto, the pair were often one of the most highly debated topics within the organization. In the city of Toronto, it is a mixed bag of opinions with these two, especially after Reimer’s trade to the San Jose Sharks.

Now, it is time to get the study underway. I am going to start it off with Jonathan Bernier, just as before. However, I am going to have to use the 2014-15 season, because that was his better of his last two seasons. I will be using statistics from the game on December 16th, 2014. The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Anaheim Ducks 6-2.

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*just as a reminder, I only count goals by where they are shot from, not if they are tipped in.

Click the link to see what each variable means

The Scoring Recap (Anaheim Goals Only)

(2nd Pd)

13:13 SHG: C+C3+C11

(3rd Pd)

8:35: K+K12

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When the two goals were calculated then added up, the result was 2.1454. I found it a bit interesting that it ended up higher considering the fact that a two-on-one is actually supposed to be a lower rated value in RGV. That is something I may need to adjust, not to mention the fact that I don’t have any changes to the formula when a shorthanded goal is scored.

Since I already ran a study of a Bernier game, it is time to compare Reimer to Bernier. Just as with Bernier, I need to flip-flop seasons due to the fact that they had good years at different times.

The game I will use statistics from is November 10th, 2015. Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Dallas Stars 3-2.

More puck prose: Project Helium: Bernier/Reimer RGV Study I

The Scoring Recap (Dallas Goals Only)

(2nd Pd)

19:26: K+K2+K11

(3rd Pd)

5:39: F+F1+F12

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    • James Reimer’s RGV for this game was 2.0538. Once again, the RGV was just above one per goal when totaled up. This is becoming a bit of a trend, as I have now performed four different studies, with two and four goals each time. As this formula continues to evolve, I believe that I can make the changes necessary in order to award proper value to every goal that is scored.

    I noticed a major issue with variable “C”, inasmuch that it ended up above one when I added all three variables together. When I wrote variables “C3” and “C11” in the formula, the purpose was to raise the outcome of the formula when added together. However, it wasn’t supposed to go above one, which is what happened.

    Also, a 2 on 1 chance is supposed to be one of the lowest valued outcomes of the entire formula. Even though I added three different variables together, I don’t think it should come close to what goals in front of the net are valued at.

    To conclude this, I have made progress with the changes, however more are forthcoming. Due to the complexity of this formula, it may take many attempts to create the perfect model. I am not sure how many studies it will take, however I might be on RGV for a while before I figure out exactly what works.

    Next: Toronto Maple Leafs End of Year Review, Grades

    In time, it can be done, but keep in mind this is all in flux. I think I am getting there, but am taking steps in the right direction. Stick around, more to come soon.

    source: www.mapleleafs.nhl.com

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