Hockey Sabermetrics: Project Helium – Regulated Plus/Minus Review

Hockey Sabermetrics: Project Helium – A Review of Regulated Plus/Minus, Wrap-Up/Analysis Comparing All 6 Studies

Now that I have finished my batch of studies involving Regulated Plus/Minus, I think it would be a good idea to write a recap article of the proposed hockey sabermetrics formula.

Since the formula I calculated involved artificial statistics, this study is flawed at best. But keep in mind the fact that I didn’t come up with these statistics out of thin air. I tried to award the statistics by the way an individual plays, not just by picking random numbers. Even though I could be slightly off on certain stats, it was all based on the player’s ability and style of game.

More from Editorials

• The problem with another expansion franchise in the NHL
• Should the NHL make referees give postgame interviews?
• Why Carolina Hurricanes fans should be excited for the 2023-24 season
• Should The Seattle Kraken Consider Trading Shane Wright?
• Why any NHL team would be lucky to add Phil Kessel to their roster

The whole point of this formula is to see if it shows anything regarding a difference between the traditional plus/minus that hockey uses and RPM.

Since the formula for RPM is completely different from the NHL version, it is going to produce a different result, but would it be higher or lower?

Answer to that question is both. It was four above and two below, however the forwards split their results equally.

More puck prose: Project Helium: Morgan Rielly - Regulated Plus/Minus

A lot of this had to do with the fact that if a defenseman only gets penalized for his mistakes instead of his teammates, it is possible that he will score better in RPM. Keep in mind that he would get credit for goals scored by teammates as well, but if it is just limited to his play, it is going to help him out tremendously (especially if he is on a bad team).

More puck prose: Project Helium: Brent Seabrook - Regulated Plus/Minus

I found it interesting that Jonathan Toews scored the best on RPM, considering his value was 21.336.

Given most of the numbers were artificial, the basis of the stats are somewhat reflective of reality.

Toews is a very good player at both ends of the ice, and it makes sense that his score would be the best of all the bunch.

More puck prose: Project Helium: Taylor Hall - Regulated Plus/Minus

Another interesting fact is that all four forwards outscored both defenseman, and if you were to take the worst forward RPM score (Taylor Hall-12.448) it would still be better than both defenseman combined.

More puck prose: Project Helium: Marian Hossa - Regulated Plus/Minus

Brent Seabrook and Morgan Rielly didn’t score above 2.000 combined, however that is mostly because I credit players for goals scored, and since defenseman don’t score as much as forwards it is unlikely their scores will be as high. However, both Seabrook and Rielly did beat the score of their NHL counterpart in RPM.

More puck prose: Project Helium: Patrice Bergeron - Regulated Plus/Minus

More from Puck Prose

• Detroit Red Wings 2023 Rookie Camp Has Plenty of Ups and Downs
• This Columbus Blue Jackets rookie doesn’t want to be forgotten
• 2 trades the Boston Bruins must make to secure the Stanley Cup
• 3 reasons the Avalanche won’t win the Stanley Cup in 2024
• This is a big year for Alex Turcotte and the Los Angeles Kings

Here is the most interesting part regarding RPM: Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa both scored below their 2014-15 NHL plus/minus.

Since they may be the best two-way players in the study (given Patrice Bergeron would give them a run for their money), there is another factor to consider; Since Toews and Hossa are on the ice for so many goals (not just their own), they score well in the NHL version of plus/minus.

The Chicago Blackhawks also won the Stanley Cup, so their 2014-15 NHL plus/minus would be very good without a doubt.

More puck prose: Project Helium: Jonathan Toews - Regulated Plus/Minus

Overall, I think the formula has shown some solid results, and could actually work long-term if it was ever possible to track players in real life. I realize that there could be flaws, especially when it comes to the way all even strength goals/goals against are measured. That is something that could be looked at a bit more in-depth, as not all of them are the same (go-ahead goals, etc).

Next: Project Helium: Introduction to Regulated Plus/Minus

The reason I say that about even strength goals is due to the fact that those two parts of the formula contain the most volume. Since the most volume are in those two variables, it might make sense to put weight on goals scored in certain situations (both lower and higher). This is a big key to how I will move forward in this study, the weighting of variables “A” and “B” in the formula. It will be tricky, but doable. Stay tuned as another formula is on the way in the near future.