Chicago Blackhawks F Artemi Panarin Deserves Calder Trophy
By Ryan Ritchie
Chicago Blackhawks F Artemi Panarin Deserves Calder Trophy Over Philadelphia Flyers D Shayne Gostisbehere
Chicago Blackhawks F Artemi Panarin was an early favorite for NHL Rookie of the Year. Players such as Patrick Kane and Braden Holtby were in a similar positions running away with their prospective awards (Hart, Vezina, etc.) – that is until just recently.
All three players named above were dominating the NHL for the vast majority of the 2015-16 season. It wasn’t until the final 15-20 game stretch when these guys finally faced adversity.
Meanwhile, we have conversation of Sidney Crosby‘s inclusion in the Hart Trophy conversation. Apparently his first 20-game stretch is forgotten? Even given Patrick Kane’s dip in March, he’s still producing at a higher rate than the Sidney Crosby who set personal records for goose eggs on the scoresheet.
Now the same type of conversation is occurring with the Calder Trophy. A slow final stretch for Panarin is giving headway to those on the Gostisbehere bandwagon. There’s only one problem – Gostisbehere hasn’t done enough to knock Chicago Blackhawks F Artemi Panarin off that pedestal.
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If we’re giving Shayne Gostisbehere legitimate consideration for Rookie of the Year with a maximum of 64 games played (57gp so far, seven remaining), why count Artemi Panarin‘s final 18-game stretch? If we don’t have the ability to see whether or not Gostisbehere would hit that final 15-20 game wall, it makes little sense to punish Panarin for his.
Current stats are as follows:
Chicago Blackhawks F Artemi Panarin
75gp 25g 39a 64pts
Philadelphia Flyers D Shayne Gostisbehere
57gp 16g 26a 42pts
57 Games Played:
Gostisbehere – 57gp 16g 26a 42pts
Panarin – 57gp 18g 34a 52pts
64 Games Played:
*Pace Projection for Gostisbehere
Gostisbehere – 64gp 18g 29a 47pts
Panarin – 64gp 24g 35a 59pts
Even if Shayne Gostisbehere managed to match his season pace over the final seven games, Panarin still manages to out-produce him through games 57 to 64.
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No intentions on taking anything away from the remarkable season by Gostisbehere. What he managed to do from a sub-par blueline on a borderline playoff team is something to be commended. Not only does he have the ability to join the rush and create offense, but he’s surprisingly solid in his own end, especially when you consider his physical stature. All that being said, Chicago Blackhawks F Artemi Panarin is still the stronger horse in this race.
Some people forget what a young defenseman named John Klingberg did in 2014-15. He had 40 points in 65 games. If Gostisbehere went pointless over the final stretch, we’re only talking about a two-point difference in comparison to a guy (Klingberg) who ranked fifth in Calder voting.
There is however one element of Shayne Gostisbehere’s stat-line that no one is talking about for some reason; his shooting percentage.
Shayne Gostisbehere – 11.8 shooting percentage (136 shots)
Artemi Panarin – 14.6 shooting percentage (171 shots)
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To the untrained eye, one would assume Panarin is getting the extra puck luck, and that his number are more likely to dip next season. But not so fast. Forwards traditionally finish with higher shooting percentages.
It’s not overly uncommon to see a blueliner’s final goal total in single digits. They shoot the puck less overall, and score fewer goals shooting from a greater distance.
When evaluating positional stats on NHL.com, we filtered the results to only include forwards who had played a minimum 25 games, with at least 100 shots on goal. Artemi Panarin ranks 38th in the NHL with a 14.6 shooting percentage.
The leaders hover in the 20 percent range, but this is a statistical category that sees vast movement at the very top year-after-year. It’s not unusual for forwards to hover in the 10-13 percent career average range.
We evaluated the same positional stats filtering defensemen with at least 25 games played and at least 75 shots on goal (25 less since d-men don’t shoot as much). Flyers rookie Shayne Gostisbehere ranks 1st among blueliners – and not by a little bit.
D-Men Shooting Percentages in 2015-16:
1st – Shayne Gostisbehere, PHI – 11.8 percent
2nd – Shea Weber, NSH – 10.1 percent
3rd – Mark Giordano, CGY – 9.6 percent
18th – Jason Demers, DAL – 7.5 percent
36th – Dougie Hamilton, CGY – 6.3 percent
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It’s safe to assume that Shayne’s shooting percentage is bound to dip in 2016-17. Even if we give Gostisbehere a generous projection of 7.5 percent for next season, we’re talking about an 82-game campaign where he finishes with 14-15 goals. The statistics don’t support the notion that Shayne Gostisbehere can repeat this pace, whereas nothing suggests that Artemi Panarin may struggle to replicate his performance.
People seem to play the game “who makes who” with Chicago’s dangerous line of Patrick Kane, Artem Anisimov, and Artemi Panarin. Does Panarin deserve credit for Kane’s most productive season of his career, or does Kane largely the reason for Panarin’s emergence? Perhaps the answer is somewhere in between. If anyone deserves credit, it’s Blackhawks Head Coach Joel Quenneville. Kane and Panarin’s creative style blends well together generating dynamite chemistry. The trio has emerged as the NHL’s top line in 2015-16.
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Yes, Chicago is struggling of late, but they’re still considered Stanley Cup contenders. There are very few people in the hockey world proclaiming the (final Wild-Card spot) Flyers as contenders for anything other than a first round exit (especially if they meet Washington).
So, please explain how Shayne Gostisbehere deserves the Calder Trophy over Artemi Panarin. Some use words such as “running away with the Calder” based on Panarin’s final stretch – quite laughable when you consider the above numbers.