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Hockey Sabermetrics: Project Helium – Carbon Block Analysis/Review

By Brian Draus

Feb 12, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Nashville Predators defenseman Shea Weber (6) against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the first period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 12, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Nashville Predators defenseman Shea Weber (6) against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the first period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Hockey Sabermetrics: Project Helium – A Review/Analysis of Carbon Block

To conclude the first study of Carbon Block, I am going to quickly review the hockey sabermetrics results from the first three articles. For those who didn’t read the first three articles, I used the 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons to gather the results.

Here is the formula as well:

Blocked shots+Takeaways/Time on ice=x (lower score is better)

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Just to show the volatility of this statistic in it’s early results, look no further than the third article. I used the average score (from both season) of Carbon Block for all seven players studied as the result. To illustrate the difference, the lowest total was from Daniel Sedin who scored 35.69 overall. The best score (given it was only one season due to the fact that he didn’t play enough minutes in 2013-14) belonged to Mark Stone. His Carbon Block score was 9.02, which is a 25-point plus difference.

I find the 25-point difference interesting for one reason, that being the fact that all five defenseman in the study didn’t have a score above 19. However, four of the forwards scored above 23. There could be two reasons for that:

First, they don’t spend as much time on the ice, therefore when the formula is calculated the score result doesn’t come out as high. The other reason, which is the main one in my opinion, is the fact that forwards are not defensive oriented. Therefore, their blocked shot and takeaway totals are lower.

More puck prose: Carbon Block - Erik Karlsson vs Drew Doughty

There were three forwards that scored well though, and all of them had one thing in common. That would be defense. Patrice Bergeron blocked about 60 shots both years (13.58 score avg), Ryan Getzlaf blocked close to 100 (11.01 score avg), and Mark Stone had 98 takeaways. These style of forwards can add value to a penalty kill, not to mention can help out in the defensive zone in many ways. The more offensive centric a forward is, not to mention soft, would make them score poorly in Carbon Block.

More puck prose: Carbon Block - Duncan Keith vs Shea Weber

To show the fact that blocks have a huge impact on a players Carbon Block score, look no further than Kris Russell of the Calgary Flames. He had over 200 blocks both seasons I used for the study, and he scored as low as 5.65 which no player came close to. Even defenseman who are considered better, such as Duncan Keith (best score 13.11) and Shea Weber (best score 10.22), didn’t come close to matching Russell.

More puck prose: Carbon Block: Comparing Forwards

In conclusion, round one of Carbon Block has been an interesting, and in my opinion, successful study. What I wanted to do was show hidden value in players, and by showing that a shot-blocking defenseman such as Kris Russell has value in another area (positive defensive plays) makes the statistic useful.

Next: NHL Trade Deadline Tracker: All-Day Coverage

I will continue to do more research on Carbon Block, not to mention write articles about it. Expect new hockey sabermetrics formulas in the near future. Stay tuned.

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