Flames D Kris Russell: Attractive Free Agent Option

Flames D Kris Russell Set to Become a Free Agent in the Summer

Statistically speaking, there may be no other blueliner in the NHL more defensively involved in a game than Flames D Kris Russell. We’re talking about a guy who blocked 73 more shots (283 total) than the 2nd most in 2014-15 (Roman Josi – 209) while playing significantly less minutes per game. He also ranked 3rd in 2013-14 with 201 blocks – with only 68 games played.

In 2015-16, Kris Russell ranks 2nd in blocked shots with 174, sitting eight behind Colorado’s Francois Beauchemin (who’s played eight more games, and averages roughly eight more minutes of ice-time/per game).

Most defenseman in the NHL have similar stat-lines when it comes to giveaways vs. takeaways. Given the fact they’re making the first pass out of the zone and usually the ones starting an offensive rush, it leaves d-men at greater risk of turning the puck over. At the same time, the position doesn’t allow for as many takeaway opportunities that forward receive.

Comparing NHL defenseman:

2013-14: Jeff Petry, Montreal (96 gva, 29 tka)
2013-14: John Carlson, Washington (53 gva, 55 tka)
2013-14: Shea Weber, Nashville (50 gva, 35 tka)
2013-14: Kris Russell, Calgary (39 gva, 25 tka)

2014-15: Jeff Petry, Montreal (83 gva, 43 tka)
2014-15: John Carlson, Washington (88 gva, 41 tka)
2014-15: Shea Weber, Nashville (53 gva, 23 tka)
2014-15: Kris Russell, Calgary (66 gva, 51 tka)

2015-16: Jeff Petry, Montreal (50 gva, 16 tka)
2015-16: John Carlson, Washington (34 gva, 17 tka)
2015-16: Shea Weber, Nashville (25 gva, 12 tka)
2015-16: Kris Russell, Calgary (34 gva, 19 tka)

*Stats obtained from NHL.com

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A mix of defensive skill being compared above. We can see that Jeff Petry is highly vulnerable to turning the puck over year-after-year. Perhaps this helps explain Montreal’s recent woes? While Petry’s numbers are consistent, P.K. Subban leads the NHL in giveaways in 2015-16 with 85 so far. Teammate Andrei Markov also ranks in the top 10 with 61. Sounds like three blueliners handing the opposition gifts with a total of 196 giveaways between three Montreal defenseman.

John Carlson of Washington is an interesting player to evaluate. He usually ranks among the leaders in blocked shots (top 20). He pulled off a rare feat for a defender in 2013-14, logging more takeaways than giveaways (something more commonly seen with forwards). In the past two years, Carlson’s giveaway numbers have increased. There’s nothing consistent about John Carlson’s production across the board.

Shea Weber is an excellent example to use when attempting to identify a quality defensive player. He produces across the board with a stat-line that screams responsible in his own end, while offering a massive offensive upside.

Kris Russell doesn’t have the offensive upside of Nashville’s Shea Weber. He plays defense first – and doesn’t take a lot of chances. It doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of making great passes that lead to goals. He’s coming off a career year – single-season high of four goals and 30 assists (34 points) in 2014-15. He also had seven goals, 22 assists (29 points) in 2013-14.

Russell is a former third round draft pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets from 2005. After spending some time with Columbus, St.Louis, and now Calgary, the 28-year-old 5’10 170lbs defender is ready to hit the open market – and hopefully get that massive pay raise he deserves. He’s in the second year of a two-year contract, which carries a $2.6 million dollar cap hit.

Yesterday, we released a piece relating to hockey sabermetrics, which can be found here. It’s just the beginning of what should be an interesting series named “Project Helium“. The objective is finding hidden values in less talked about players, while exposing the bigger names for their flaws (in a sense). Yesterday’s piece yielded some interesting results. The final numbers suggest that Flames D Kris Russell produces positive defensive plays (takeaways + blocked shots/total toi) at a rate 3x faster than Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson. Doughty and Karlsson are producing takeaways/blocked shots roughly once every 15 minutes, whereas Russell is doing the same every five minutes approximately. Why are these numbers so interesting? Well it suggests that Kris Russell is ready to step up and play bigger minutes, assuming a larger role (possibly a first pair defenseman).

Best Fits for Flames D Kris Russell

1. Toronto Maple Leafs

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If Matt Hunwick can log top pair minutes and play effectively under Mike Babcock’s system, then certainly Kris Russell can do the same. With Leafs management not expected to accelerate the re-build plan, it’ll probably take a few years to get the right pieces in their proper roles.

If they could stick Kris Russell in Matt Hunwick‘s role, or even to leave Hunwick and put Russell on the second pairing where Dion Phaneuf was playing – that’d give Toronto two guys capable of playing a shutdown role against the opposition.

If Mike Babcock likes the way the emerging Matt Hunwick has played in 2015-16, he’d fall in love with Kris Russell. Obviously not a rental option – Flames D Kris Russell should be near the top of Toronto’s free agent list. Given his age, Russell fits perfectly into Toronto’s long-term plans.

2. Buffalo Sabres

Again, not a rental option. He’s easily an upgrade on Josh Gorges and Jake McCabe, and arguably better than stay-at-home defender Zach Bogosian. This defensive group will need another upgrade to take that next step in 2016-17. Perhaps you can stick Bogosian alongside breakout star Rasmus Ristolainen, leaving Russell to play with Jake McCabe?

3. Colorado Avalanche

The fact that Francois Beauchemin is arguably Colorado’s best defenseman in 2015-16 speaks volumes. Erik Johnson is a fairly solid all-around blueliner, while Tyson Barrie is purely offensive – still learning to become more responsible in his own end. Chris Bigras is the only other d-man worth mentioning. He’s just breaking into the NHL this year, after some highly productive junior years. He’s more of an offensive two-way defenseman who will need time like Barrie to develop his defensive game. Flames D Kris Russell would be a natural fit on Colorado’s blueline. The Avs are showing promise for a playoff spot, but this is a situation better suited to explore in the offseason – Kris Russell isn’t going to help this team win a Stanley Cup this year.

4. Arizona Coyotes

Not a rental option. This would be an offseason free agent signing. The Coyotes have some promising pieces in place on the blueline – but consist of several offensive minded d-men. Russell could play in their top four, maybe alongside Klas Dahlbeck instead of Zybnek Michalek.

Next: 2016 World Cup of Hockey: Preview, Projected Rosters

Rental Fits for Rest of 2015-16:

Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins, San Jose Sharks, Tampa Bay Lightning