NHL Predictions: Post All-Star Break Edition
By Ryan Ritchie
NHL Predictions: Post All-Star Break Edition
Not to be confused with our “Bold NHL predictions” due for its third and final release in less than a month at the trade deadline. These are more simple predictions heading down the final stretch after the All-Star break.
Teams have roughly 29 to 35 games remaining, and we’re bearing down on the February 29th Trade Deadline. For NHL fans, this is the best stretch of the season. So strap yourselves in, and enjoy the ride.
NHL Predictions
1. Patrick Kane Continues Scoring Pace/Takes Home Hardware
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On a torrid pace in 2015-16, Kane has 73 points in 53 games. He’s on pace for roughly 113 points with 29 games remaining. The two highest point totals in the salary cap era (2005-present) are Joe Thornton (125 points in 2005-06) and Sidney Crosby (120 points in 2006-07).
Patrick Kane will match or exceed the range of the two highest point totals set by Thornton and Crosby. In the process of winning the Art Ross Trophy as NHL’s top scorer, Kane will also win the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy for most goals scored. Braden Holtby should give him a run for his money on the Hart Trophy, but Patrick Kane will ultimately walk away as league MVP.
2. Carolina Trades Eric Staal Prior to Trade Deadline
His $8.25 million dollar cap hit was simply too expensive to make work when Montreal and Carolina explored a potential trade earlier in the season. Big contracts are much easier to move closer to the deadline, or in the offseason.
The Hurricanes are playing very well in the past month or so, sitting just outside a playoff position. Carolina isn’t about to let pending free agents Eric Staal and Cam Ward walk for nothing. They’ll either re-sign the pair, or find trade partners. Although Ward’s trade history and lucrative contract makes him virtually unmovable.
GM Ron Francis is trying to build through the draft, with some excellent pieces already in place. If he can acquire a first round draft pick for Staal, it would make sense for Carolina to accept.
3. Pittsburgh Penguins Miss Playoffs in 2015-16
A record of 24-17-7 with 50 points after 48 games, Pittburgh finds themselves on the playoff bubble. In an attempt to salvage the season, GM Jim Rutherford already made a pair of moves shipping Rob Scuderi to Chicago in exchange for Trevor Daley, followed by David Perron and Adam Clendening to Anaheim in exchange for Carl Hagelin.
Leading the Penguins in points is Evgeni Malkin (47pts 48gp). Sidney Crosby’s slow start put him behind the eight ball, but he’s managed a Crosby-like pace over the past couple months, now with 41 points in 48 games. Among the biggest disappointments so far is Phil Kessel with just 15 goals and 16 assists in 48 games. The dangerous sniper was expected to find the back of the net far more often.
The reason Pittsburgh misses the playoffs is lack of depth. Arguably one of the worst defensive groups in the NHL in 2015-16, doesn’t stand to get much better. The only impact prospect in Wilkes-Barre on the back-end is Derrick Pouliot, who’s still learning to be more responsible in his own-end. Pittsburgh’s bottom six forward group is also among the NHL’s worst. Teams such as Chicago or Los Angeles have sustained success because they have four lines that can score. At the end of the day, the team that scores most wins the game. It’s easy to overlook that simple concept in the world of structure and defense.
4. Connor McDavid Has Strong Finish in 2015-16
McDavid had 12 points in 13 games before going down with a long-term injury. He’s expected to return soon and could see a significant increase in ice-time from the 18 minutes/game he was receiving before he got hurt. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are likely to share the duties of replacing the injured Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
It’s unclear if GM Peter Chiarelli felt pressure to move one of three centers when it seemed the Oilers would have a log jam up the middle. If he did, the injury to RNH gives him a much larger window in the offseason to find a deal that works.
Edmonton currently sits in the basement of the Western Conference. It’s hardly the improvement fans hoped for. To be fair, the Oilers are yet to have a fully healthy top six. Fans of the NHL in general are fearing the worst, hoping Edmonton isn’t in line to win another Draft Lottery. There’s still time for the Oilers to salvage 2015-16 though.
Prediction: Connor McDavid Leads the Edmonton Oilers in scoring down the stretch (outscores Taylor Hall and Leon Draisaitl). Cam Talbot continues his strong play, and the Oilers manage to drag themselves out of the basement of the Western Conference.
5. Ryan Getzlaf Finishes With Single-Season Career Low Goal Total
A one-time 30-goal scorer, and five-time 20-goal scorer, Ryan Getzlaf is usually among the NHL leaders in points. His best seasons came in 2008-09 (91 points) and 2013-14 (87 points). Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry have been the face of the franchise in Anaheim in the salary cap era.
A roller coaster ride in 2015-16, Getzlaf is on a single-season career low pace for goals and points. His lowest goal total came back in 2011-12 when he scored 11 goals in 82 games. So far this year, Getzlaf has three goals in 43 games.
Now, obviously a player of Ryan Getzlaf’s caliber can go off for a few big nights the same way Sidney Crosby masked his slow start. Just don’t expect Ryan Getzlaf to do the same. With the way Anaheim is struggling to score goals, particularly Getzlaf, it’s difficult to imagine at least eight more goals over the final stretch of 2015-16.