Are the Anaheim Ducks Favorites to Win the West?

If I asked you if a team that has already clinched its division, is leading its conference and has a shot at winning the President’s is a favorite to go to the Finals, how quickly would you say yes? Five seconds? Three seconds? Or would you just look at me like I have six heads and walk away? But what if I said that team was the Anaheim Ducks…would you pause for an extra second at least? I think so…

This isn’t to take a shot at the Ducks and the fantastic season they’ve had so far (although it will come off that way). They ran away with the Pacific Division and have the inside track for the top spot in the Western Conference. And while it may be a long shot, they still have a puncher’s chance at the President’s Trophy. If you just looked at the standings, there is no way the Anaheim Ducks shouldn’t be a favorite, right?

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Well, I’m not too sure. For as wonderful as they have been this season, they don’t do anything exceptionally well either. If you had to label them, you could call them an “offensive” team as they’re eight in the league in goals scored per game. But, they are only 21st in goals against (second worst among likely playoff teams), have the 26th best power play and 17th best penalty kill. They are 15th in the league in shots on goal per game, 11th in shots against. And if you’re into the “advanced” side of the game, their possession numbers at 5 on 5 are middle of the pack. Basically, they are a first place team with the makeup of a middle to slightly-above-middle team.

So what makes them so good? How about this stat: 32-1-7. You know what that is? It’s their record in one-goal games, by far the best in hockey. In fact, it’s historic actually. It’s the highest win percentage (.800) of any team over the course of a full 82-game season going back at least through the 1997/98 season, the furthers the stats are available on NHL.com.

Is it luck or skill? To be honest, probably a bit of both. Their +13 goal differential is currently the lowest of any of the Western Conference playoff contenders. However when you win 80% of the one-goal games you play in, it masks some of your other deficiencies outlined above. Then again, when you have players such as Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry on your top line, it’s not fair to say it’s all luck as those two represent two of the best in the game. If those two can be neutralized though? Well, then it’s left up to depth guys like Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano and Matt Beleskey to carry the load, certainly no sure thing.

The other item that the Anaheim Ducks do very well is win games when trailing after two periods. They’ve won 12 of 34 of these games, which may not sound like much until you realize that .353 win percentage is the best in the NHL in that scenario. So not only do they Ducks win a ton of close games, they come back to win many of them too. Add it all up and you have 107 points through 80 games.

But can it last for four playoff rounds? In this writer’s opinion, no. It starts in net with Frederik Andersen and John Gibson. While those two may be great over the long term, they’ve both posted .914 save percentage. Among the 43 qualified goalies, Andersen ranks 23rd in this department, and only the Detroit Red Wings have a number one goalie with a worse save percentage among playoff teams. Coach Bruce Boudreau played musical chairs with his goalies in the playoffs last year and one would think he’ll do the same again this season if things don’t go the Ducks’ way early.

Speaking of Boudreau, does anyone have confidence that he can lead this team through four-greuling playoff rounds? In his previous eight seasons he’s won three playoff series and never made it to a Conference Finals. It’s tough to say he didn’t have good teams considering he’s won six division titles during his coaching career. He’s been known to have an itchy trigger finger with his goalies even with Washington and could feel his seat getting warm if his Ducks don’t have a deep playoff run.

It also may be unfair, but there’s a good chance the Ducks will open the playoffs hosting one of the Wild or Kings. Talk about a reward for a successful season: either the hottest team in the conference the past couple of months or the defending champs who knocked you out in seven last year. Would you bet your paycheck on the Ducks beating either of those teams in a best of seven series right now? Has there ever been a situation where a division leader, ten points clear of their opponent, begin the first round as an underdog in their series? Well, we may see it real soon.

It’s been a great season for the Anaheim Ducks and no one can take that away from them. Unfortunately they’ve been on the right side on some extremely lucky situations for so long that it will come to an end sooner rather than later. Perhaps I’m just being too cynical about their record in close games and ability to come back in games and should just appreciate it for what it’s worth. It’s difficult to dismiss a division winner and possible top seed in a conference so easily, but looking at the Ducks this season as a whole and not just the gaudy record, it’s only a matter of time before the smoke and mirror act wears off and we’re back here wondering “what went wrong.”

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