Randy Carlyle Fired by Leafs; Analytical Community Rejoices
After spending parts of four seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs, the club finally decided to fire coach Randy Carlyle this morning according to numerous reports. Carlyle had the Leafs in the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference with a 21-16-3 record, but after losing seven of their last nine, management had seen enough.
It was actually surprising that Carlyle made it through last summer after a late-season collapse cost the team a playoff spot and Brendan Shanahan was brought in as President. That was on the heels of a dramatic game seven collapse to the Boston Bruins in the 2012/13 playoffs, the only season that Carlyle led his Leafs to a playoff spot.
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Despite having the Leafs in a playoff spot, the team found itself again at the bottom of the league in multiple possession stats, including Fenwick For Percentage (FF%) and Corsi For Percentage (CF%), two of the advanced statistics many people now focus on when evaluating players and teams. While I don’t want to turn this into a debate into advanced statistics, simply put: the Leafs’ opposition generally had control of the puck more than Toronto which led to more shot attempts towards the Toronto net.
Of course you can just look at the shots against and quickly gleaned that Toronto was allowing 34.4 shots against per game, second worst in the league. Couple that with only getting 29.2 shots on net per night, and the minus 5.2 shot differential was third worst in the league heading into Tuesday night. Clearly it is not a recipe for success and Leaf’s management agreed.
The shakeup in management this past summer also saw the hiring of Kyle Dubas as Assistant General Manager. The 28-year old became something of a hot commodity and marked a new leaf (pun intended) in Toronto’s philosophy as the youngster was well known in the analytical community. While assistant coaches Peter Horachek and Steve Spott will handle the immediate coaching duties, no doubt the next head coach will be someone Dubas and analytical-friendly, marking a stark contrast from the “grit and jam” style of Carlyle.
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This isn’t to demean Randy Carlyle as he’s been a good hockey coach during his career including a Stanley Cup championship with the Anaheim Ducks back in 2007. No doubt he’ll eventually land on his feet somewhere since he is already part of the coaching fraternity, and if there is one thing we know about NHL teams, it’s that they love retread coaches.
Of course with the team in tail spin, rumors began floating that changes could be made sooner rather than later. Too Many Men on the Site writer Patrick Helper suggested earlier today that the club needed to make some moves, most noticeably stating that Joffrey Lupul would be an attractive piece to contenders as the trade deadline approached (there’s no truth to rumors that Pat knows tonight’s lotto numbers, but it wouldn’t hurt to ask).
It wouldn’t shock anyone to see the club actively try to re-shape the roster by the March trade deadline. While the goal is to build a club to sustain long-term success, today’s moves seem to indicate that the team doesn’t realistically expect to compete this season with the roster currently build, something that should make the rest of the Eastern Conference playoff contenders perk up.
The eyes of the hockey world are back on Toronto now and it’s imperative that the next coach brought in is the right one for an organization and city seeking its first championship since 1967. Firing Randy Carlyle isn’t the cure-all for the club, but it’s a start.