Are the Philadelphia Flyers Closer to Contention Than We Think?

As the calendar readies to flip to a new year, it’s apparent that the Philadelphia Flyers and its fans from the City of Brotherly Love will have to wait at least one more year to raise the Stanley Cup.  And more likely, a few years more after that.  The present may be dim, but there is a flicker of hope for a better future.

Let’s start with the present: the Flyers are 14-16-6, good for 34 points and fifth place in the Metropolitan Division.  After Monday night’s games they are nine points out of the final wild card spot with a handful of teams in front of them.  They are 15th in scoring, 23rd in goals against, have been strong on the power play (21.2%, seventh in the league), and brutal on the penalty kill (74%, last in league).  All in all, it’s been an underwhelming performance from a team that made a surprise post-season appearance last year and took the eventual Eastern Conference Champion Rangers to a game seven.

There are pieces to work with here for general manager Ron Hextall.  The team has two of the top three scorers in the league with Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux.  Power forward Wayne Simmonds is signed through 2018/19 on a modest $3,975,000 cap hit.  Matt Read has been a 20-goal scorer twice in his first three NHL seasons. Brayden Schenn and Sean Couturier are solid contributors and the team is excited about forward Scott Laughton, it’s top pick in 2012.  Even goaltender Steve Mason has been good enough during his time with the Flyers, and despite his 6-11-5 record this season, has posted a solid .919 save percentage and 2.52 goals against average.

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Of course the real eyesore of this team is on the blue line, where there are just too many holes and not enough talent to survive.  And even worse is the money committed to it: Andrew MacDonald, former New York Islander (you know, the teams generally finishing in the bottom five of goals allowed during his tenure) signed a six-year, $30,000,000 to stay in Philadelphia after the Flyers acquired him last season at the trade deadline for two-2nd round draft picks. It took Flyer fans less than half a season to realize what Islander fans knew all along- MacDonanld is nothing more than a third pairing guy who can block shots, okay if you’re paying him $2 million a year, devestating at $5 million.

The rest of the defense isn’t much better: Michael Del Zotto, Nicklas Grossmann, Mark Streit, Luke Schenn, Braydon Coburn, Nick Schultz.  Beyond Streit and Coburn, is there anyone else here that you feel comfortable with playing solid top-four minutes on a consistent basis?

There is hope for the future with youngsters Samuel Morin and Shayne Gostisbehere on the blue line.  However, with Streit, MacDonald, Grossman, Schenn and Coburn locked up beyond this season, there doesn’t appear to be room for both players next season if someone isn’t moved out.  And that assumes the team doesn’t re-sign Del Zotto or Schultz or try to bring in another defenseman from outside the organization.  Patience will be key here for Hextall not to do anything rash, but instead allow his young defensemen to develop, even if it means keeping them in the AHL an extra season.

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Of course proper development may be the issue, but it starts with drafting.  Hextall’s predecessor, Paul Holmgren, whiffed so badly in recent drafts it’s actually surprising the Flyers haven’t bottomed-out yet.  From 2008 through 2012 the Flyers have drafted only two players that have appeared in more than 100 games with the team (Couturier and Zac Rinaldo, which should probably only count as half a player anyway).  Poor drafting and development leads to signing washed-up veterans like Vincent Lecavalier to a five-year, $22,500,000 contract and absolutely crush your salary cap space.  Of course finding CBA loopholes that allow the team to place former players/current NHL safety officer personnel on long time injured reserve help alleviate some of these concerns.

Barring some unforeseen miracle-working by Hextall, the team you see this year is likely what you’ll get next year if you’re a Flyers fan.  Even with the cap expected to rise to approximately $73 million, after Chris Pronger is placed on LTIR, the team will have around $11 million to bring in another forward or two, backup goalie, and re-enforce the defense.  There are some intereting names that are slated to become free agents on the blue line- Marc Staal, Mike Green, Johnny Boychuk, and Paul Martin, among others- that could provide immediate results for the Flyers if they can convince them that being a Flyer is the thing to do.  And as we know, the Flyers have never been shy about throwing money around.

However before Ron Hextall makes it rain in free agency, he needs to take a long, hard look at his own players coming up on free agency.  Voracek is signed through the 2015/16 season at a modest $4,250,000 cap hit.  The leading scorer in the NHL should expect a raise that will put him in the ballpark with franchise center Claude Giroux‘s $8 million he’s receiving.  Additionally Brayden Schenn and Couturier will need new contracts after the 2015/16 season.  So while it appears there may be some money available to spend, Hextall needs to be patient and take care of his house first.

The other interesting concept is possibly using some of these players in a trade to package them with a bad contract to make more money available and re-tool the franchise.  What do I mean?  Glad you asked…

Let’s say Hextall has started kicking the tires with Voracek’s agent on an extension and Hextall doesn’t like what he’s hearing.  Would you call up Anaheim or San Jose and float out the idea that Voracek is available, but any trade involving him has to also include Andrew MacDonald, Luke Schenn, or R.J. Umberger?  Yes, you’re giving up a 25-year old stud in Voracek, but also are getting out from under a disasterous MacDonald contract and allow your team flexibility to go hard after a game-changing defenseman, via trade or free agency.  I’m not saying it’s likely to occur like this, but all options need to be on the table for the Flyers now with its dire cap situation and middling roster.

Would the team be better in the long run?  You’d still have Giroux, Simmonds, Schenn (the good one), Couturier, Read and Laughton up front, plus over $9 million in additional cap space, plus whatever you get in the aforementioned trade, plus what is likely to be a top 10 draft pick.  It’s an interesting thought and the kind of “outside-the-box” thinking the Flyers will need to compete in the Metropolitan Division which is filled with quality teams.

So while this season won’t make the fans forget about 1975, there are enough quality pieces here and with a little creative thinking, could get this club back to the promise land soon enough.