An NHL Team in Las Vegas: Success or Failure?

Jun 4, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; NHL commissioner Gary Bettman at a press conference before game one of the 2014 Stanley Cup Final between the New York Rangers and the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Nevada is one step closer to getting an NHL team in Las Vegas. On Monday at the Board of Governors meetings, Bettman announced that Bill Foley has been given permission to stage a season ticket drive.

An NHL team in Las Vegas sounds like an good idea when you consider that the Las Vegas metropolitan area boasts a population of nearly two million residents and is a tourist destination that attracts almost 40 million tourists each year. But, would an NHL team in Las Vegas succeed long term? 

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I am sure that, one way or another, Bill Foley will find plenty of season ticket holders. The ticket drive, used to gauge interest in a potential team, will certainly find plenty of willing buyers. Most hotels will likely buy multiple season tickets and give single game tickets as a gift to higher profile guests. There will also be plenty of individual buyers, excited by the prospect of local professional sports (minor leagues don’t really count) for the first time in Vegas.

An NHL team in Las Vegas could be very popular for a few seasons (until the newness wears off) and might even last 10-15 years before an inevitable move, but I don’t think it has the sustainability to last much past that point.

Can the NHL last in Las Vegas?

First of all, if Las Vegas is such an ideal spot why hasn’t a professional franchise (from any of the major sports) either moved or expanded there already? In the 1990’s there were a total of 16 expansion teams across the Big Four (NHL, NBA, NFL, and MLB) and the NHL had 7 of those. Charlotte, NC, a city close to Vegas in population, has been able to get THREE pro teams (Hornets, Panthers, and Bobcats/Hornets) and it doesn’t have nearly the tourism Vegas has.

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Secondly, larger metro areas are struggling or failing to keep franchises. Atlanta has had two different NHL teams (Flames and Thrashers, in Calgary and Winnipeg respectively) and has lost the teams both times. Atlanta has a metro area of over 5.5 million, which is twice as large as Las Vegas, and has had already established franchises which suggests a built in fan base. Phoenix has, thus far, been able to keep the Coyotes, but it could be only a matter of time before the Coyotes move, possibly to Seattle.

Lastly, NHL teams seem to move often, looking for greener pastures. Minnesota, Winnipeg, and Quebec, have all lost teams (though Minnesota and Winnipeg both have teams again). Atlanta (twice) and Hartford have both lost teams. It really wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Las Vegas on an ever expanding list of cities that have lost NHL franchises. 

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A Las Vegas team could avoid the pains of expansion if the Arizona Coyotes were to relocated, though this does seem somewhat unlikely. If Las Vegas were to get a relocated team then the city might have a better chance at keeping a franchise around. Keep in mind, Phoenix and Las Vegas are less that 300 miles apart. The Coyotes could, conceivably, retain some semblance of a fan base, while adding a new one.

It’s possible for an team in Las Vegas to succeed, but expansion isn’t the right idea. It would be better to move a team that is struggling in one market and give it a chance in another, than adding a franchise that could suffer the same fate.