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Ranking Canada’s World Junior Players For Future NHL Success – Before Tournament

IIHF U-20 World Junior Ice Hockey Championship

Last week I wrote about Canada’s World Junior team and the potential of players becoming stars at the NHL level based on past results. In a nutshell, I analyzed every player on Team Canada’s roster from tournaments taking place between 1990 and 2005.  More than half the players (55.4%) played more than 500 games, which is a good proxy for a regular NHL player.  However, only 8.2% became star players.

This year is unique, as with the NHL lockout there are a number of players who were expected to be in the NHL this season.  This situation occurred for both the 1995 and 2005 tournaments.  The 1995 team did not produce any “Star” players, but had eight “Good” players and another five players that played over 500 games.  The 2005 team is regarded as the best World Junior team of all time.  That team had five “Star” players, seven “Good” players and one more player who played over 500 games.  There is no telling what this team will produce, but that is part of what I am trying to do here. I have ranked each player on this year’s Team Canada based on their prospects for future NHL success giving them a projected rating based on the same system:

Rating Criteria

100

Star, Top 3F, Top 2D, Elite Starting Goalie

75

Good Player, Top 6F, Top 4D, Starting Goalie Multiple Years

50

Good Role Player, 500+ Games in NHL for F and D, Goalie > 300 starts

25

Role Player, 200-499 Games in NHL for F and D, Goalie 100-299 starts

10

Depth Player, 51-199 Games in NHL for F and D, Goalie 50 – 100 starts

5

Minor Leaguer, 1-50 NHL games, Goalie < 50 starts

0

Busts, Zero NHL games

 

As the title indicates, this is my pre-tournament assessment.  I plan on reviewing this assessment after the tournament to see if it has any influence on my projections.

Name

Pos

NHL Team

Rating

Notes

Ryan Nugent Hopkins

F

EDM

100

RNH proved in his rookie NHL season that he was a top end NHL talent

Nathan MacKinnon

F

Eligible 2013

100

Potential 1st overall pick in 2013 draft.  All indiciations are he will be a star in the NHL

Jonathan Huberdeau

F

FLA

100

High end offensive talent, will be in a Panthers uniform if lockout ends

Ryan Strome

F

NYI

75

Dominating OHL this year,I think he projects as a second line center in NHL, not a “Star”

Dougie Hamilton

D

BOS

75

Big, mobile defenseman, not sure he ever produces enough offense to be a “Star” in NHL

Morgan Rielly

D

TOR

75

Elite offensive skills, projects as a power play quarterback, questions about his defensive game

Griffin Reinhart

D

NYI

75

Big defenseman, good all around game, should project as a top 4 for majority of his career

Jonathan Drouin

F

Eligible 2013

75

Projected top 5 pick in this years draft, question whether he is explosive enough to be a “Star”

Boone Jenner

F

CBJ

50

Having great year in OHL, but projects as a third line player at next level

Mark Scheifele

F

WPG

50

Was overmatched in NHL last year, I think he projects more as a bottom six guy over his career

Scott Harrington

D

PIT

50

Will play in the NHL, question whether he will be a top 4 guy for majority of his career

Brett Ritchie

F

DAL

50

Big, physical winger, will find a niche in the NHL, question whether he can produce offense consistently

Phillip Danault

F

CHI

50

Likely a role player at the NHL Level

Xavier Oullet

D

DET

50

Potentially a top 4 guy, just not sure he’ll be that consistently at NHL level

Malcolm Subban

G

BOS

50

First round pick last year, many believe he will be a star, with a goalie it’s too early for me to tell

Charles Hudon

F

MTL

0-25

Depth player, question whether he can take his game to the next level

Ryan Murphy

D

CAR

0-25

Tons of skill, but I question whether he can be a consistent NHL player.

Tyler Wotherspoon

D

CGY

0-25

Lacks mobility to be a conistent pro at NHL level

Anthony Camara

F

BOS

0-25

Camara only put up 0.5 pts/gm the season after his draft year, most likely a depth player

J.C. Lipon

F

Undrafted

0-25

Went undrafted in first year of eligibility, he should hear his name called this year.

Ty Rattie

F

STL

0-25

He’ll either be a top 6 forward or a fringe player; he might be a guy that changes my mind after this tournament

Jordan Binnington

G

STL

0-25

Like Subban, goalies are tough to predict, I will err on the side of caution with both Binnington and Paterson

Jake Paterson

G

DET

0-25

Like Subban, goalies are tough to predict, I will err on the side of caution with both Binnington and Paterson

After reviewing my assessment I noticed that the breakdown of players by rating category is very similar to the averages for a typical Team Canada.  So it’s pretty clear that I do not think this team will come close to the team that brought home the gold in 2005, but that does not mean they can’t win this tournament.

Rating

Players

Precentage

100

3

13.0%

75

5

21.7%

50

7

30.4%

0-25

8

34.8%

 


Follow Tony on Twitter: 
@TheDailyBites

Topics: 2013 WJC, Prospect Ratings, Team Canada

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